In June, India's merchandise exports increased by 2.6% to $35.2 billion, while merchandise imports increased by 4.9% to $56.18 billion, resulting in a $20.98 billion trade imbalance, according to commerce department figures. The increase in exports was fueled by increased demand for engineering items, electronics, coffee, medications and pharmaceuticals, and organic and inorganic chemicals.
"Exports in April-June totaled $200 billion (goods and services). If the trend continues, we are sure that we will exceed $800 billion in trade this year," commerce secretary Sunil Barthwal told reporters at a briefing.
Last month, commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal stated that despite external challenges, India's exports of products and services are anticipated to exceed $800 billion by the end of the current fiscal year. India's total exports - goods and services - grew by only 0.04 percent in FY24, reaching $776.68 billion.
In April, the World Trade Organization (WTO) reduced its outlook for merchandise trade volume growth to 2.6% in 2024, down from 3.3% in October last year. However, the international trade agency stated in its most recent bi-annual 'Global Trade Outlook and Statistics' that, following a 1.2% decrease in 2023, demand for traded products will increase in 2024 as inflationary pressures relax and real family incomes rise. In October of last year, it anticipated that merchandise trade volume will increase by 0.8% in 2023.
The United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) presented its monthly Global Trade Update earlier this month, stating that the forecast for 2024 remains good, but geopolitical challenges and industrial policies will continue to shape global trade patterns. "Moderating global inflation and improving economic growth forecasts point to a reversal of the downward macroeconomic trends that have dominated most of 2023." Furthermore, increased demand for energy transition and artificial intelligence goods is expected to drive trade development through 2024. Furthermore, the likelihood of interest rate reduction in the United States later this year, and the resulting weaker US currency, might stimulate global commerce even further. However, the global trade forecast for 2024 is still exposed to downside risks. "Persistent geopolitical tensions, rising shipping costs, and emerging industrial policies may have a significant impact on global trade," it noted.
According to UNCTAD, global trade growth in the March quarter of 2024 was mostly driven by increasing exports from China (9%), India (7%), and the United States (3%).
According to the WTO, India's ranking among top merchandise exporters (excluding intra-European Union trade) rose one spot to 13 in 2023 from 12 the previous year, although its share remained steady at 2.2%. Similarly, its ranking among large product importers (excluding intra-European Union trade) increased to sixth, although its proportion remained unchanged at 3.4%.
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