On Tuesday, S&P Global revised up their estimate for India's GDP growth for the Financial Year 2024–25 (FY25) by 40 basis points, to 6.8%, which is less than the government and central bank's 7% prediction.
A research titled "Economic Outlook Asia-Pacific Q2 2024: APAC Bides Its Time On Monetary Policy Easing" projects that India will expand by 7.6% in FY24. The New York-based organization kept its forecast of 7% GDP growth for India in FY26 and FY27.
Louis Kuijs, chief economist for S&P Global Ratings' Asia-Pacific region, stated, "We generally project robust growth for Asian emerging market (EM) economies, with India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam in the lead."
According to S&P, the impact of high interest rates and inflation on household spending has slowed sequential GDP growth in the second half of FY24 in domestic demand-led countries including Australia, Japan, and India. Nonetheless, it stated that rate reductions of up to 75 basis points are anticipated in India in 2024.
"In India, the Reserve Bank of India will begin to reduce rates as a result of declining US policy rates, a reduced budget deficit, and reducing inflation. However, we think that more information on the disinflation path might delay this decision until at least June 2024, if not later," the statement stated.
"In line with our projection for US policy rates, we largely expect these moves to occur in the second half of the year."
China's GDP growth is predicted to decrease from 5.2% in FY24 to 4.6% in FY25. "We see sustained property market weakness and little macroeconomic policy assistance.
If demand continues to decline and the government reacts by increasing factory investment, deflation is still a possibility, according to S&P.
S&P Global stated that it anticipates growth in trade-dependent developed economies in the Asia-Pacific region, such South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, to speed up, while comparatively domestic demand-led nations, like Japan and Australia, would see a decline in growth.
