The forecast of a regular Southwest Monsoon also bodes well for food output and a reduction in pricing pressures in the upcoming months, according to the Finance Ministry's monthly economic review.
"A regular Southwest Monsoon is predicted, which bodes favorably for food output and a reduction in pricing pressure. Based on a typical monsoon, the RBI projects retail inflation of 4.9% for the first quarter of FY25. The agricultural sector's promising signs should aid India in fending off any negative influences brought on by geopolitical unrest and rising commodity prices worldwide. Similarly, India's robust macroeconomic buffers ought to assist the country's real economic sectors in easily navigating external obstacles and maintaining the growth momentum from the previous year," the ministry stated.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast monsoon season rainfall that is above average. The April evaluation also emphasized India's capacity to manage the negative effects of international tensions while maintaining growth rates.
"The positive indications in the farm sector should help India firewall against any adverse pressures that may arise from geopolitical tensions and global commodity prices," stated the Finance Ministry.
Amid the heated debate about employment during the election campaign, the Finance Ministry declared that current employment trends in India are "reassuring." "While the urban unemployment rate declined YoY during the quarter ending March 2024, the labor force participation rate and worker-to-population ratio have improved," the ministry stated.
Speaking about the trajectory of inflation, the ministry stated that a number of factors, such as government measures, open market sales, stock monitoring, imports of pulses, and export limitations, will have an impact going forward.
