Christopher Wood, a top expert in global equity strategy from Jefferies, has allocated about 10% of his US dollar denominated pension plan to Bitcoin. He is looking to cash out on his investment targeting a price of $150,000. This is up by almost 53% from its current valuation of $98,300.
The first investment of Bitcoin in the pension fund’s portfolio was done in December 2020 at a price of 22779 USD. Wood also has a 5% investment in Bitcoin-ETFs within his global long-only equity portfolio. Wood stated that the base strategy is not to actively trade these positions, especially in the pension fund portfolio.
“Still, for those with a more tactical focus, or owning Bitcoin on leverage, GREED & fear’s view is that $150,000 is a good price level to start taking some profits since GREED & fear’s base case is that Bitcoin will rally three times in this post-halving cycle since the trend has been for the capital gains on holding Bitcoin to more than halve following each halving cycle,” Wood wrote in his recent weekly note to investors, GREED & fear.
Wood's confidence in holding onto Bitcoin for now and his belief that it will reach $150,000 is driven by the fact that US President-elect Donald Trump has indicated a shift in regulatory policy towards cryptocurrency at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
“This is now surely coming. It is also worth noting that Howard Lutnick, the co-chair of Trump’s transition team as well as Trump’s pick to be Commerce Secretary, is also a champion of Bitcoin and crypto. It is also the case that Lutnick is chief executive officer of Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald, which is one of the major custodians of the crypto world’s major stablecoin Tether in terms of where the latter deposits its dollars,”
Up, up and away
The value of Bitcoin has jumped by 164% over the years. It went from around $37,000 and currently stands at about $98,300 except for the halving of the cryptocurrency that will take place in April 2024. After the first halving on November 28, which was in the year 2012, Bitcoin went on to increase almost 90 fold in a period of a year. The second halving on July the 9th in the year 2016 then resulted in 30 times returns within 18 months. After the 3rd halving of May 11, 2020, Bitcoin experienced a return of 7.5 multiple in 11 months after which it reached a peak in April 2021, and also surged eight times within 18 months to its then highest of $68,992 in November 2021. Conclusively out of the most recent halving dated April 19, 2024, bitcoin also experienced an increase of 54% to $98,300. Judith Wood sees this price rise as wealth but she has not viewed Bitcoin as replacement to gold which has gained the following percentages against the yen, renminbi, euro and swiss francs moneys in 73%, 54%, 50%, and 40% respectively by 2023 January. Rather he conceptualizes it as a substitute of gold that could be used in a digital manner.
“It is becoming risky to ignore crypto for many institutional investors who have still not focused on it. This is because the Trump administration’s seeming championing of it means it is about to move into the mainstream. Still, GREED & fear does not view Bitcoin as a substitute for gold but simply as a digital alternative,” he said.
