ICICI Securities has placed large bets on HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries Ltd, and Bajaj Finance Ltd, expecting one of these three to be India's first stock with a market value of $1 trillion by 2032.
ICICI Securities likes HDFC Bank, expecting a valuation re-rating, with a 25.5 percent hurdle rate and 20 percent historical profit growth. RIL requires a 21% long-term profit growth, whereas Bajaj Finance needs a 35-40% growth to attain the $1 trillion market cap, assuming no P/E re-rating.
According to ICICI Securities, the stock will reach a $1 trillion market cap by 2032 if the largest stock mcap to aggregate mcap ratio remains at 5.8 percent, the PAT to GDP ratio remains at 7 percent, and real GDP growth increases from 7 percent in FY24 to the previous cycle's peak of 9 percent.
Although market valuation increase is anticipated, faster-than-GDP corporate profit growth may result in Mcap/GDP reaching 160 percent in the absence of P/E expansion. According to the analysis, GDP growth would be driven by capital investment, re-leveraging, discretionary consumption, and productivity gains from significant breakthroughs in digitalisation.
There are only six companies with a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Microsoft leads the field with $2.9 trillion in market capitalization, followed by Apple ($2.87 trillion) and Saudi Aramco ($2.1 trillion). RIL is the most valuable company in India, with a market capitalization of $213 billion.
