As we close the Monday market, Nifty crashes below 22,200, Sensex tanks 2,227 pts in the worst crash in 10 months. Adding to this, Indian rupee ended 61 paise lower at 85.84 per dollar on Monday versus Friday's close of 85.23.
The Indian stock market suffered massive losses in trade on Monday, April 7, mirroring the trends seen in major global markets amid mounting fears over the impact of a global trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs.
On Monday, April 7, the Indian stock market experienced significant losses, reflecting trends in major global markets. This decline was driven by growing concerns about the potential impact of a global trade war, sparked by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
Ajay Bodke, Independent Market Analyst
"I believe investors should allow the dust to settle. Long-term investors with clear asset allocation goals should wait for the panic to subside. The root cause of this crisis is global, and it is impossible for any fund manager to fully anticipate the evolving situation. Right now, those with leveraged positions are facing difficulties, and markets may continue to decline for a few more sessions."
K. Subramanyam, Co-Head, Altamount Capital
"We are in a state of considerable turmoil. India is taking a mature approach by engaging in negotiations. Moving forward, corporate earnings will be crucial. A positive sign for India is the sharp fall in crude oil prices, and expectations of a 25-50 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India should provide a boost to consumption. Despite the correction, valuations remain stretched in certain sectors, and the market may take another two quarters to stabilize."
Sandip Sabharwal, asksandipsabharwal.com
"Investors may find opportunities in sectors affected by domestic factors, as global commodity prices continue to fall. The direct impact on the Indian economy is expected to be minimal, with only a 0.2% reduction in overall growth. The focus should be on the recovery of the markets and the RBI's policy response, especially considering potential deflationary pressures outside the US. It’s a matter of risk aversion, and markets may reach a bottom later this week. The RBI’s monetary policy will be crucial, as tariffs could lead to deflationary pressure outside the US, making aggressive rate cuts necessary to boost liquidity."
Bruce Kasman, Head of Economics, JPMorgan
"The scale and disruptive impact of US trade policies, if sustained, could push both the US and global economy into recession, despite their current health."
Devender Singhal, Equity Fund Manager, Kotak Mahindra AMC
"If India secures better trade terms through negotiations, there is potential for Indian industries to increase their global export share, particularly in US markets. Key sectors such as diversified financial services, healthcare services, telecom services, and discretionary consumption are likely to recover faster and experience lower downsides compared to the broader market."
Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda
"The impact on India’s GDP will be limited, as India’s economy is primarily driven by domestic demand, unlike East Asian nations like China, where a significant portion of growth is export-based."
Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities
"After the US markets plunged on Friday, it was evident that global equity indices would follow suit, as fears mount that Trump's trade policies could trigger a recession and higher inflation in the US. Commodity prices, including crude oil and several metals, are already seeing declines, signaling weakening demand if this trend continues. With Dow Futures pointing to a challenging start for US markets on Monday, global equity indices may face further turbulence on Tuesday."
Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments
"The market plunged due to concerns over high US tariffs and the retaliation from other countries, which could lead to a trade war. Sectors like IT and metals have underperformed compared to the broader market due to risks of high inflation and slower growth, potentially resulting in a recession in the US. While the impact on India may be more limited compared to other countries, investors should exercise caution during this uncertain period. Domestic-focused sectors are expected to recover faster when the market stabilizes."
Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan
"The rupee depreciated due to risk-off sentiment in global markets and a strong US dollar. Global markets tumbled on Monday amid ongoing concerns over trade tariffs, while FII outflows further pressured the rupee. However, falling crude oil prices helped cushion the downside. We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias, as weak global markets and continued uncertainty around trade tariffs could weigh on the currency. Selling pressure from FIIs may also put additional pressure on the rupee, though lower crude oil prices may provide some support. The USDINR spot price is expected to trade within the range of Rs 85.50 to Rs 86.20."
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